Corrugated Packaging Market Projected to Grow by 2028, Says Ilim Group at RosUpack 2025

At the 29th International RosUpack Exhibition, Vladimir Shoshin, Managing Director for Domestic, CIS, and Export Sales at Ilim Group, shared valuable insights into the future of Russia’s corrugated packaging market. Speaking at the event’s plenary session, Shoshin presented an analytical forecast outlining both current challenges and long-term growth expectations for the industry.

Market Slowdown in 2024, Optimism Ahead for 2025

According to Shoshin, 2024 witnessed subdued consumer sentiment and reduced consumption, impacting overall demand for packaging solutions. However, as of January 2025, the market began showing signs of revival, with the consumer sentiment index outpacing savings growth by 4%—a potential indicator of renewed market activity.

Despite these green shoots, forecasts suggest that packaging-intensive sectors—including household appliances, building materials, beverages, and cosmetics—may see a decline in production volumes by the end of 2025 compared to 2024.

Corrugated Sector Under Pressure Amidst Overcapacity

Shoshin highlighted key issues affecting the corrugated packaging segment. Amid a deceleration in demand and the commissioning of new production capacities using waste paper, the utilization rate of waste paper-based corrugated material production has dropped to 80%, marking the lowest level since the start of the decade.

Growth Outlook: Gradual Recovery and 2028 Projections

Despite near-term hurdles, Ilim Group forecasts a 2% market growth in 2025, with accelerated recovery anticipated in the second half of the year due to seasonal factors. From 2026 to 2028, the market is expected to grow by at least 4% annually.

Shoshin added that delays in new investment projects—especially in the construction of waste-paper-based facilities—are likely if interest rates remain high. Nevertheless, a rise in consumption of corrugated materials by 700,000 tons is projected by 2028. This would raise the utilization rate of production to 87%, alleviating current capacity underuse and supporting broader market recovery.

Industry Context and Strategic Implications

The insights presented at RosUpack 2025 underscore the complex interplay between macroeconomic trends, consumer behavior, and production capacity in shaping the future of the corrugated packaging market. With rising demand forecasted over the next three years, industry stakeholders may need to reassess their investment and capacity utilization strategies.

RosUpack, Russia’s largest packaging industry exhibition, continues to serve as a key platform for industry leaders to discuss innovation, sustainability, and market outlooks. The event brought together packaging professionals, manufacturers, and investors seeking to navigate the evolving landscape of the paper and packaging sector.